Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 February 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Region 1164 (N27E46) produced several C-class events, the largest of
which was a C4/Sf observed at 27/0355Z. A possible filament eruption
around N15E70 was visible on SDO/AIA imagery at approximately
27/0930Z. An associated CME was observed on LASCO C2 at 27/1048Z but
is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (28 February - 02 March). A chance for
M-class activity exists from Region 1164.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (28 February). Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for days two and three (01-02 March) due to
the effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Feb 090 Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 005/005-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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