Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 March 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate due to an impulsive M1 X-ray event at 25/2322Z from Region 1176 (S16E16). Associated with this event were Type II (673 km/s), Type IV and 10.7 cm (170 sfu) radio signatures. Region 1176 remained mostly unchanged through the period, though it increased in longitudinal extent, and is classified as an F-type group. Region 1178 (S15E43) developed penumbra in its trailer spots to become a D-type group. At about 26/0500Z, GOES-15 SXI BE12A imagery observed a large surge from Region 1180 (N25E53) that appeared to continue for about six hours. X-ray data was mostly unavailable during this event due to GOES-13 and GOES-15 eclipse phase. Associated with this event was a fast-moving (approximately 850 km/s) partial-halo, asymmetric CME first observed in LASCO C3 imagery at 26/0630Z and STEREO-A and B COR2 imagery at 26/0709Z. Though this CME does not appear to have an Earth-directed component, further analysis is required.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days (27 - 29 March). A chance for M-class activity exists on day one (27 March) becoming likely on days two and three (28 - 29 March) with a slight chance for X-class activity on 29 March. This expected increase in activity is due to the complex nature of Region 1176 and the return of old Region 1166 (N10, L=110) on 27 March. On its last transit across the disk, old Region 1166 produced four M-class events and one X-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE solar wind data indicated a gradual decrease in wind velocities from a high of 460 km/s at 26/0243Z to a low of 360 km/s at 26/1841Z. IMF Bz was predominately north through the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for day one (27 March). By day two (28 March), quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are possible due to effects from the 24 March CME. Quiet levels are expected to return on day three (29 March).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
Class M50%60%70%
Class X05%05%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Mar 115
  Predicted   27 Mar-29 Mar  120/125/125
  90 Day Mean        26 Mar 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Mar  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar  005/005-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%10%
Minor storm01%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%15%
Minor storm01%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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