Viewing archive of Monday, 7 March 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Regions 1164 (N24W59), 1165 (S20W78), and 1166 (N11E12) produced M-class events during the past 24 hours, all of which contain a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Region 1166 produced a M1/Sf observed at 07/1430Z with an associated Type II and Type IV radio sweep. Region 1164 produced a M3 at 07/2012Z with an associated Type II radio sweep and a Tenflare that was in progress at this report time. The SOHO/LASCO imagery observed a full halo CME (a further analysis is underway). Images from the C2 first observed the CME at 07/1448Z while the C3 imagery first observed the event at 07/1518Z. The Penticton 10.7 cm flux and the 90 day mean are estimated for today (07 March) due to flare enhanced readings.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate on day one (08 March) with M-class events expected. Solar activity for days two and three (09-10 March) are expected to be low with a chance for an M-class event as Regions 1165 and 1164 transit around the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (08-10 March).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
Class M75%50%40%
Class X10%05%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Mar 153
  Predicted   08 Mar-10 Mar  150/150/145
  90 Day Mean        07 Mar 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Mar  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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