Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 April 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Apr 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1183 (N17W25) produced a C1 event at 03/0519Z. A CME was associated with a B8/Sf event from Region 1173 (S18W86) at 02/2347Z. At 03/0024Z, Goes-15 SXI imagery detected material movement from the SW limb that was later observed in STEREO-B COR2 imagery at 03/0109Z and STEREO-A COR2 imagery at 03/0409Z. Using this imagery, a preliminary plane-of-sky speed estimate of 322 km/s was assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance for moderate activity (isolated M-class) from Region 1183 during the period (04 - 06 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels in response to a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (04 - 06 April). The CME mentioned above is not expected to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Apr 114
  Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr  110/105/105
  90 Day Mean        03 Apr 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  013/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Apr  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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