Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 March 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1175 (N14W36) continued to grow in areal coverage and produced the largest event of the period, a B7 X-ray event at 20/0733Z. Surging and low-level B-class X-ray emissions from the vicinity of the SE limb signal the return of old Region 1165 (S20, L=198).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately very low levels with a chance for C-class events for the next three days (21 - 23 March). A slight chance for isolated M-class activity exists all three days due to the return of old Regions 1165 late on 21 March and 1164 (N24, L=179) late on 22 March.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind velocities at the ACE satellite remained low, averaging about 350 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was southward the entire period, not varying much beyond 0 to -5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels for days one and two (21 - 22 March). By midday on day three (23 March), a small coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
Class M10%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Mar 092
  Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar  095/100/105
  90 Day Mean        20 Mar 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Mar  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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