Viewing archive of Monday, 12 September 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Sep 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1292 (N08E52) produced two C-class flares, the largest a C2 at
12/0329Z. Regions 1293 (N17W11), 1294 (S18E27), and 1295 (N21E72)
were numbered today. Region 1295 produced a C9 at 12/2054Z. The
region is considered an H-type group but is still rotating around
the limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class events for the next three days
(13-15 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active during the past 24
hours due to effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for
days one and two (13-14 September) due to effects from a CH HSS.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (15 September) as
CH HSS effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Sep 124 Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 12 Sep 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 018/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 010/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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