Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 October 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been low. New Region 1314 (N26E72)
was numbered today and produced a C1 flare at 09/1327Z. Region 1309
(N23W24) decayed slightly and is now considered an Hsx-alpha type
group. All other regions on the disk remained relatively stable and
quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low for the next three days (10-12 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled with an isolated active
period from 09/0300-0600Z due to solar sector boundary changes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated
active periods on day one (10 October) due to effects from a coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Mostly quiet conditions are
expected on days two and three (11-12 October) as effects from the
CH HSS subside.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 121 Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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