Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 October 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was low. A new spot group emerged and
was numbered Region 1320 (S22W39). There are currently ten numbered
regions, several producing C-class events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class event over the next 3 days (14-16
October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (14 October). Conditions are
forecast to increase to quiet to unsettled conditions with the
chance for active periods on days 2 and 3 (15-16 October) from
anticipated CH HSS effects.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 138 Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 005/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Wednesday, 9 October 2024
X1.8 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm watch
Latest forum messages
AR13883 2024/11/04 CME 45sun goes blank 72Space Weather Memes 566Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1209AR13889 143
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/13 | M1.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 166 -0.4 |
| Last 30 days | 163.2 +18.4 |