Viewing archive of Friday, 14 October 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Despite 9 regions on the disk,
only low level C-class flares have occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next 3 days (15-17 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with an isolated minor storm
possible on day 1 (15 October) and mostly unsettled with
intermittent active periods on days 2-3 (16-17 October). The
activity is forecast as effects from an anticipated CH HSS.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 136 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 012/010-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 50% | 40% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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