Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 October 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was low due to one C-class flare, a C2
that occurred at 1844Z. The source was attributed to new Region 1333
(N15E11) which emerged today on the disk as a small, D-type sunspot
region. Region 1330 (N09E04) continues to be the largest group on
the disk as a 500 millionths E-type group with a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration, but could only manage to produce a small B6 flare
0102Z. The remainder of the disk was generally quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low, with an additional isolated C-flare considered to be
likely. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from
either of Region 1330 or 1333.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally quiet for the first two days (29-29
October). An increase to unsettled levels is expected late on the
29th or early on the 30th due to high speed solar wind stream from a
coronal hole. Unsettled levels are expected to continue through
30-31 October.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 132 Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 007/007-007/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 16% |
All times in UTC
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