Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 November 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest flare was a C2 at 23/1328Z from Region 1346 (S15W82). Region 1356 (N15E28) decayed slightly in area in its intermediate spots. Three CMEs were observed during the summary period. The first was associated with a filament eruption in the northwestern quadrant first observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 22/1957Z. The second was first seen in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 23/0048Z which was possibly associated with the same filament eruption. The third was first seen in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 23/0924Z which was associated with a high latitude backside event. Further analysis of the 22/1957Z CME is ongoing to determine the possibility of a glancing blow. The two subsequent CMEs are not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class activity. An isolated M-class flare is possible from Region 1356.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (24 - 26 November).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Nov 140
  Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov  145/145/145
  90 Day Mean        23 Nov 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Nov  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active04%04%04%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm00%00%00%
B. High Latitudes
Active14%14%14%
Minor storm12%12%12%
Major-severe storm06%06%06%

All times in UTC

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