Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 November 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest flare was a C2
at 23/1328Z from Region 1346 (S15W82). Region 1356 (N15E28) decayed
slightly in area in its intermediate spots. Three CMEs were
observed during the summary period. The first was associated with a
filament eruption in the northwestern quadrant first observed in
SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 22/1957Z. The second was first seen in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 23/0048Z which was possibly associated with
the same filament eruption. The third was first seen in SOHO/LASCO
C2 imagery at 23/0924Z which was associated with a high latitude
backside event. Further analysis of the 22/1957Z CME is ongoing to
determine the possibility of a glancing blow. The two subsequent
CMEs are not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class activity. An isolated M-class flare is
possible from Region 1356.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (24 - 26
November).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Nov 140 Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 23 Nov 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 04% | 04% | 04% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 00% | 00% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| Minor storm | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Major-severe storm | 06% | 06% | 06% |
All times in UTC
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Strong far side CME 327Power transmission for all of us. And why I believe we are better prepared than ever for major solar events 9Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1748Filaments and prominences 595Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1351
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