Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 November 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 28 0150 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1354 (S16W64) decayed to plage late yesterday, however early in the period today, a CME originated from the vicinity of Region 1354. This CME was first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 27/1036Z and appears to have no Earth directed components. At the time of this report, an Eruptive Prominence on the Limb (EPL) was recorded off the west limb around Region 1353 (N08W62). Early analysis also indicates this CME not being Earth directed. New Region 1362 (N08E76) was numbered today as it rotated onto the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days (28-30 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels with an isolated period at active levels recorded at high latitudes. Solar wind measurements, as made by the ACE spacecraft, indicate the possible arrival of the corotating interaction region (CIR) in front of the anticipated coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began yesterday at 1125Z is still in progress. Max flux for this event, so far, was 80 pfu at 27/0125Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for minor storm periods for the next two days (28-29 November). These elevated levels are expected due to the combination of the arrival of a CH HSS and CME effects. On day three (30 November), a slight decrease in activity to mostly unsettled levels is expected, as the effects of these two events wane.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton90%10%01%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Nov 135
  Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov  140/145/145
  90 Day Mean        27 Nov 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Nov  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  011/012-013/018-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active39%40%31%
Minor storm17%20%12%
Major-severe storm01%02%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active11%10%15%
Minor storm27%26%30%
Major-severe storm58%61%43%
COMMENT: Corrected Part IA to read New Region 1362 (N08E76).

All times in UTC

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