Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 December 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1386 (S18E64) produced a C5/Sf at 24/0839Z. Region 1376 (rotating off the West Limb) produced a long duration C4 flare at 24/1236Z. Both were accompanied by CMEs which are not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next three days (25-27 December)
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (25-27 December).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Dec 143
  Predicted   25 Dec-27 Dec  140/140/145
  90 Day Mean        24 Dec 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Dec  000/001
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%

All times in UTC

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