Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 December 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1376 (N20W59) produced
the largest flare of the period, a C6/Sn at 20/2250Z. It was
classified as a Dsi type group with Beta magnetic characteristics.
Regions 1382 (S14W10) and 1384 (N14E52) produced the majority of the
activity over the past 24 hours, mostly low level C-class flares.
These regions were classified as Dsc and Cao regions, respectively,
both with Beta magnetic characteristics. There were several CMEs
observed on LASCO C2 imagery, none of which were Earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next three
days (22-24 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for the next three days (22-24
December).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Dec 145 Predicted 22 Dec-24 Dec 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 21 Dec 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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