Viewing archive of Monday, 30 January 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1410 (N24E16) produced a single C-class x-ray event during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low over the next 3 days (31 January - 02 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet, until the arrival of a glancing blow from the limb event CME that occurred in association with the X1/1f flare on 27 January. The transient passage was observed by the ACE spacecraft at 30/1554Z with a solar wind speed increase from around 350 km/s to near 450 km/s. A weak sudden impulse measuring 8nT was observed by the Boulder magnetometer at 30/1635Z. Conditions afterwards ranged from unsettled to quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton that began at 27/1905Z and reached a maximum of 796 pfu at 28/0205Z was still in progress at the time of this event, with flux levels hovering near 20 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for days 1-3 (31 January - 02 February). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux levels, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 in geosynchronous orbit, are expected to decay below the 10 pfu threshold in the next day or two.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton99%50%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Jan 114
  Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        30 Jan 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Jan  000/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  004/005-004/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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