Viewing archive of Tuesday, 31 January 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next 3 days (01-03 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the period at unsettled conditions from 30/21Z until 31/00Z, before decreasing to quiet levels for the remainder of the day. The greater than 10 MeV proton event which began at 27/1905Z and reached a maximum of 796 pfu on 28/0205Z, dropped below the 10 pfu threshold and ended at 31/0635Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for days 1 and 2 (01-02 February), and quiet to unsettled on day 3 (03 February) due to anticipated CH HSS effects.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Jan 117
  Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb  120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        31 Jan 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Jan  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  004/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%20%
Minor storm01%01%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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