Viewing archive of Monday, 13 February 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with the chance for M-class flares over the next 3 days
(14-16 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes and
ranged between unsettled to minor storm levels at high latitudes.
The activity was the result of a sub-storm as well as the onset of
short lived coronal hole high speed stream effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin day 1 (14 February) at quiet to unsettled levels.
Between 06Z and 12Z, an anticipated glancing blow from the CME on 11
February is expected at Earth, with a subsequent increase in
geomagnetic activity. Primarily unsettled and active levels are
forecast to persist throughout the day, with an isolated minor storm
possible. Conditions on day 2 (15 February) should begin to subside,
with quiet and unsettled levels expected during recovery from the
transient. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (16
February).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 108 Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 012/018-006/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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