Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 February 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. New Region 1421
(N17E59) rotated onto the disk as a simple unipolar group. The
remainder of the disk and limb was quiet and stable. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (19 -
21 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE solar wind velocities
were steady at 300 km/s through about 18/1500Z while the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly
north. After 1500Z, wind speed, temperature and density all
indicated gradual increases, while Bz indicated some rotation
through +/- 7 nT. These signatures were indicative of a co-rotating
interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
periods, on day one (19 February) due to recurrent CH HSS effects.
By days two and three (20 - 21 February), a return to mostly quiet
levels is expected.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Feb 104 Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 105/110/110 90 Day Mean 18 Feb 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 008/008-004/005-003/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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