Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 March 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Solar activity was moderate. A long duration M2/1N
flare was observed at 04/1052Z from Region 1429 (N18E55).
Associated with the event was a 750 sfu Tenflare, Type IV Radio
Sweep, and a CME first visible in STEREO B COR 2 Imagery at 04/1210Z
(estimated speed of 840 km/s). This region is classified as a Dkc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Further
analysis of the CME will be necessary as imagery becomes available,
however there appears to be a partial Earth-directed component. A
glancing blow is possible from this event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a slight chance for an X-class flare
from Region 1429.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions with an
isolated major storm period observed at high latitudes between
04/0900 - 1200Z. Activity was due to extended periods of the
negative Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field near -5
nT. The solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was relatively
steady near 380 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (05 March). Activity levels
are expected to increase on day 2 (06 March) due to a possible
glancing blow from todays CME associated with the M2/1N flare.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected with isolated minor
storm periods possible. Conditions are expected to settle down to
mostly quiet to unsettled conditions by day 3 (07 March) as the
effects of the CME wane. There is a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429 for the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 120 Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 006/005-012/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Wednesday, 14 May 2025
Another X-flare! Potent sunspot region 4087!
Tuesday, 13 May 2025
X1.1 solar flare from sunspot region 4086
Tuesday, 15 April 2025
CME arrival, G3 storm watch
Latest forum messages
New around here. Carrington and Miyake 10Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1890ISWA Website error 2Line chart of indicators on the auror video, animated graph trace 40Ask your obscure/"stupid" space weather questions. 406
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/05/14 | X2.7 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/05/15 | M2.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/05/17 | Kp6+ (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2025 | 140.6 +6.4 |
| May 2025 | 68.9 -71.7 |
| Last 30 days | 92.7 -23.7 |