Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 March 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Solar activity was moderate. A long duration M2/1N
flare was observed at 04/1052Z from Region 1429 (N18E55).
Associated with the event was a 750 sfu Tenflare, Type IV Radio
Sweep, and a CME first visible in STEREO B COR 2 Imagery at 04/1210Z
(estimated speed of 840 km/s). This region is classified as a Dkc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Further
analysis of the CME will be necessary as imagery becomes available,
however there appears to be a partial Earth-directed component. A
glancing blow is possible from this event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a slight chance for an X-class flare
from Region 1429.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions with an
isolated major storm period observed at high latitudes between
04/0900 - 1200Z. Activity was due to extended periods of the
negative Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field near -5
nT. The solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was relatively
steady near 380 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (05 March). Activity levels
are expected to increase on day 2 (06 March) due to a possible
glancing blow from todays CME associated with the M2/1N flare.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected with isolated minor
storm periods possible. Conditions are expected to settle down to
mostly quiet to unsettled conditions by day 3 (07 March) as the
effects of the CME wane. There is a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429 for the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 120 Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 006/005-012/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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