Viewing archive of Monday, 5 March 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. An X1/2b flare occurred at 05/0409Z from Region 1429 (N17E41). This flare was associated with a full halo CME with a LASCO C3 plane of sky speed of about 1340 km/sec. Region 1429 has a beta-delta magnetic class with an area of approximately 810 millionths, and appears to be growing. The region produced additional M-class flares during the period. New Region 1431 (S27W36) was numbered today and is a small B-type sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate, but there is a chance for additional major flare activity and/or a greater than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to unsettled with the exception of some active to minor storm periods at high latitudes. A greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement began at about 05/0030Z. Flux levels remained elevated throughout the day and reached a peak of 3.9 pfu at 05/1630Z. The initial increase was associated with the long duration M2 flare of 04 March, but additional particles were also contributed by todays X1/CME event. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for day 1 (06 Mar) due to combined effects from the M4/CME event observed on 04 March and a favorably positioned coronal hole high speed stream. Active conditions with a chance for minor storm periods are forecast for the second day (07 Mar) due to a expected glancing blow from todays X1/full halo CME. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the third day (08 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
Class M75%75%75%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton30%30%30%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Mar 132
  Predicted   06 Mar-08 Mar  135/140/140
  90 Day Mean        05 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar  010/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Mar  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  012/015-013/020-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%35%15%
Major-severe storm30%40%10%

All times in UTC

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