Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 April 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. Occasional low-level C-class
flares occurred. Region 1459 (S15W25 - Dki/beta) produced a single
C-class flare and showed signs of gradual decay in its intermediate
portion. Region 1465 (S18E14 - Dai/beta) produced two C-class flares
and showed spot and penumbral development as well as some polarity
mixing in its intermediate portion. New Region 1466 (N12E29 -
Cso/beta) emerged early in the period and gradually grew. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (23 - 25 April) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with a
brief interval of active levels at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (23 -
24 April) with a chance for active levels due mainly to a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream. Weak CME-passage effects are also
possible on day 1 from the partial-halo CME observed on 19 April.
Field activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on day
3 (25 April).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 148 Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 145/145/140 90 Day Mean 22 Apr 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 010/010-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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