Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 May 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few weak C-class flares
were observed from old Region 1476 (N10, L=180) and Region 1479
(N15W39). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the reporting
period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days 1 -
3 (20 - 22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event at geosynchronous orbit that began at 17/0210Z and reached a
peak flux of 255 pfu at 17/0430Z, ended at 18/1620Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day 1 (20 May). Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day 2 (21 May). Quiet to unsettled
levels with isolated active periods are expected on day 3 (22 May)
as a coronal hole high speed stream and the 18 May CME are expected
to become geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 131 Predicted 20 May-22 May 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 19 May 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 006/005-007/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Saturday, 14 September 2024
X4.5 solar flare with a fast coronal mass ejection
Thursday, 12 September 2024
G3 geomagnetic storm watch due to CME passage
Monday, 12 August 2024
Severe G4 geomagnetic storm
Latest forum messages
AR 3825 218Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1446Some weird thing on farside seismic signature 11Density and Temperature ?s 3Density and Temperature ?s 0
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/09/14 | X4.54 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/09/14 | M3.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/09/17 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| August 2024 | 215.5 +19 |
| September 2024 | 151.6 -63.9 |
| Last 30 days | 158.3 -54.2 |