Viewing archive of Monday, 23 July 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Newly numbered Regions 1527 (N27E64) and 1529 (S12E71) produced the only C-class flares for the period: a C2/1f flare at 23/1127Z and a C1 flare at 23/1700Z, respectively. New Region 1528 (N17E67) was also numbered. Two CMEs were observed overnight in LASCO C2 imagery. The first was associated with a filament eruption beyond the northwest limb beginning at 22/1248Z and the second, an asymmetric full-halo associated with flare activity from old Region 1520 (S16, L=086) approximately 40 degrees beyond the west limb beginning at 23/0236Z. These CMEs are not expected to disturb the geomagnetic field.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class events for the forecast period (24 - 26 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with intervals of active to minor storm conditions observed at high latitudes between 23/1200 - 1800Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded the 10 pfu threshold at 23/1545Z. A maximum of 12 pfu was reached at 23/1700Z with flux levels still above threshold as of this report. An enhancement of the greater than 100 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was on-going as well. The proton event is likely associated with flare activity from old Region 1520 that occurred at approximately 23/0235Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods on day 1 (24 July) due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 2 (25 July) as effects begin to diminish. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (26 July).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton30%05%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Jul 097
  Predicted   24 Jul-26 Jul  100/105/110
  90 Day Mean        23 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jul  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul  007/015-007/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%05%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm35%05%05%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/11/06X2.39
Last M-flare2024/11/24M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm2024/11/10Kp5+ (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
October 2024166.4 +25
November 2024144.7 -21.7
Last 30 days158.7 +10.9

This day in history*

Solar flares
12000X2.81
22001X1.68
32000X1.18
42000M5.13
51999M2.97
DstG
11982-192G3
21978-149G3
32001-145
41986-105G3
52023-99G2
*since 1994

Social networks