Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 September 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest event of the period was a long duration B9 x-ray event at 22/2010Z from an area of enhanced emission located behind the east limb near S15. New Region 1577 (N08E43) emerged on the disk as a stable, 4-spot bipolar group. Region 1575 (N08E24) increased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma configuration. The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels all three days of the forecast period (23 - 25 September). A slight chance for M-class activity exists for day three as active regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE satellite measurements indicated a steady decline in wind velocity from about 500 km/s to near 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels all three days of the forecast period (23 - 25 September).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
Class M05%05%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Sep 125
  Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep  125/125/130
  90 Day Mean        22 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Sep  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  005/005-004/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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