Viewing archive of Friday, 19 October 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar Activity was low. Multiple low-level C-class
flares occurred, including a C3 flare at 19/2052Z from an
un-numbered region beyond the southeast limb. Region 1596
(N08E60), an Eko/Beta-Gamma spot group, showed intermediate spot
growth and was the most magnetically complex region on the solar
disk. Several CMEs were observed on LASCO C2 imagery, however, none
are believed to be Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare during the
forecast period (20-23 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet over the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, steadily decreased from
approximately 600 km/s to near 400 km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly positive with maximum
deflections near +/-2 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (20 October). Days 2 and 3 (21-22
October) should see an increase to quiet to unsettled levels due to
the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 141 Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 19 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 006/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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