Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 March 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Mar 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
12/2246Z from Region 1692 (N09E35). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Mar,
15 Mar, 16 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 348 km/s at
13/0120Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/2107Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 12/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 113 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Mar), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (15 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three
(16 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 123 Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 13 Mar 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 007/008-016/020-013/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 65% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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