Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 March 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Mar 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
12/1107Z from Region 1690 (N24W08). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Mar,
14 Mar, 15 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 342 km/s at
12/1439Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/0853Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/0757Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 113 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (14 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (15 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 123 Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 006/005-007/008-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 25% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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