Viewing archive of Monday, 18 March 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Mar 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
18/0321Z from Region 1698 (S19W86). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (19 Mar, 20
Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (21 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 702 km/s at 18/0049Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 17/2106Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/2112Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2
pfu at 17/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 253 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (19 Mar, 20 Mar)
and quiet to active levels on day three (21 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
| Class M | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Mar 118 Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 115/110/105 90 Day Mean 18 Mar 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 032/057 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 009/008-008/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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