Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 April 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Apr 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (15 Apr) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (16 Apr) and
expected to be low on day three (17 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
558 km/s at 14/0443Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 14/0857Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 14/0524Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at
13/2255Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 207 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Apr, 16 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (17 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| Class M | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 117 Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 115/110/105 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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