Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 April 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Apr 14 1245 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Warning condition

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Apr 2013	123	023
15 Apr 2013	121	017
16 Apr 2013	119	004

Bulletin

NOAA ARs 1718 and 1719 (Catania numbers 40 and 43) are decaying, although maintaining their beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field. NOAA AR 1721 (Catania number 45) decayed also and is now classified as beta active region. No flare above the C2 level occurred during the past 24 hours. We expect flaring activity on the C-level, also from the rapidly emerging NOAA AR 1723 (no Catania number yet). An isolated M-class flare is not excluded. Due to two beta-gamma active regions in the western hemisphere, we maintain the warning condition for protons, although their flux at energies above 10 MeV continues to decrease. The Earth is currently inside the post-shock solar wind flow with speed around 500 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude around 12 nT. The north-south IMF component Bz has been almost exclusively positive after the shock arrival, so the geomagnetic conditions remained at the quiet to unsettled level. The ICME driving the shock has not arrived yet. If it arrives, a geomagnetic disturbance only up to the minor storm level (K = 5) can be expected due to low ICME speed.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 076, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Apr 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	082 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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