Viewing archive of Monday, 24 June 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Jun 24 1302 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
24 Jun 2013	128	017
25 Jun 2013	128	019
26 Jun 2013	128	010

Bulletin

Solar activity has been active during the past 24 hours, featuring an M2.9 flare and two C flares, both from NOAA AR 11778. The M2.9 flare peaked at 20:56 UT on June 23, and the second C flare, peaking at 11:32 UT on June 24, was a C9.9 flare. More C flares are expected within the next 48 hours, with a high chance for an M flare from AR 11778. The 10 MeV protons were above the 10 pfu threshold from 20h UT on June 23 till 9h UT on June 24, and are slowly declining again. A large flare could however push the proton flux back above this threshold, which is why we issue a proton warning condition. The solar wind is still in a coronal hole high speed stream regime, with solar wind speeds gradually decreasing from around 600 km/s to approximately 550 km/s.The IMF ranged between 2 and 8 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain high, but continue their gradual decrease on June 24, 25 and 26. Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels (K Dourbes between 2 and 4; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) during the past 24 hours. Quiet to active conditions (K Dourbes < 5) are expected for June 24 to 26.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 075, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Jun 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	026
Estimated Ap	023
Estimated international sunspot number	078 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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