Viewing archive of Monday, 30 September 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Sep 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 29/2339Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 279 km/s at 30/0134Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/0514Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/0305Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 181 pfu at 30/2005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 629 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Oct), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (02 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (03 Oct). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton99%99%90%
PCAFIn Progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Sep 105
  Predicted   01 Oct-03 Oct 100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        30 Sep 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Sep  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  007/010-017/025-014/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%35%35%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm25%45%45%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/11/06X2.39
Last M-flare2024/11/23M1.1
Last geomagnetic storm2024/11/10Kp5+ (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
October 2024166.4 +25
November 2024144.7 -21.7
Last 30 days158.6 +10.8

This day in history*

Solar flares
12000X3.4
22000X2.87
32000X2.71
41998X1.54
51999M4.33
DstG
12001-221G4
21982-197G3
31986-86G2
41981-66
51991-65
*since 1994

Social networks