Viewing archive of Monday, 30 September 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Sep 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
29/2339Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Oct,
02 Oct, 03 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 279 km/s at
30/0134Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/0514Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/0305Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 181 pfu at 30/2005Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 629 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Oct), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (02 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels
on day three (03 Oct). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days
one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 90% |
| PCAF | In Progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 105 Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 007/010-017/025-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 45% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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