Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 October 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
27/1248Z from Region 1875 (N07W64). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29
Oct, 30 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 313 km/s at
26/2148Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/0318Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 27/0634Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 765 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 Oct), unsettled to
active levels on day two (29 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (30 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 167 Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 165/155/150 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 003/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 014/020-015/018-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 45% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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