Viewing archive of Monday, 28 October 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Oct 28 1323 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
28 Oct 2013	173	025
29 Oct 2013	175	026
30 Oct 2013	175	011

Bulletin

During the past 24 hours, the sun produced an X flare, two M flares and four C flares. Most flares originated from sunspot region Catania 16 (NOAA active region 11875), except for two C flares originating from Catania 18 (NOAA AR 1877) and NOAA AR 1873. The X1.0 flare peaked at 1:41 UT on October 28 and was associated with a Type II burst (estimated shock speed of 700 km/s by Culgoora). In the next 48 hours, M and X flares are likely to occur. LASCO C2 and STEREO COR2 A observed several CMEs on October 27 and 28, among which a halo CME first registered by LASCO C2 at 2:12 UT on October 28 (associated with the X1.0 flare, CME speed estimated at 590 km/s). Another CME first detected in LASCO C2 at 4:48 UT on October 28 was related to an M5 flare. Both CMEs are mainly westward oriented and could deliver a glancing blow in the second half of October 30. Solar wind speed measured by ACE is currently around 300 km/s, while the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) reached a maximum of 7 nT during the past 24 hours. Current geomagnetic activity is at quiet levels (local K at Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1). Active to minor storm conditions are possible within the next 24 hours, due to the expected arrival of the CMEs of October 25. Active geomagnetic levels are possible in the second half of October 29 and October 30, due to a possible glancing blow by the partial halo CME of October 26 and a possible glancing blow related the two partial halo CMEs of October 28.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 108, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 27 Oct 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	167
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	102 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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