Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 October 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Oct 29 1211 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
29 Oct 2013	154	019
30 Oct 2013	150	023
31 Oct 2013	150	022

Bulletin

The sun produced four M flares and six C flares during the past 24 hours. These flares originated from Catania sunspot regions 18 and 23 (respectively NOAA ARs 11877 and 11882). In the next 48 hours, M flares are expected, with a slight chance for X flares. LASCO C2 observed a halo CME at 15:24 UT on October 28. The CME is associated with the M4.4 flare of 15:07 UT originating from NOAA AR 11882 and with a type II burst (shock speed of 1855 km/s estimated at Sagamore Hill). This CME is partly Earth directed and is expected to arrive around 12:00 UT on October 31. There is a substantial risk for halo CMEs and the warning condition for proton storms remains valid. Solar wind data measured by ACE indicate the arrival of a small shock around 7:00 UT On October 29, probably related to the arrival of CMEs of October 25. Solar wind speed increased from 300 to 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) reached a maximum magnitude of 11 nT, with a Bz component varying between -10 and +10 nT. Current geomagnetic activity is at quiet levels (local K at Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1). Active to minor storm conditions (K= 4 to 5) are possible within the next 24 hours. Also active to minor storm levels are possible in the second half of October 30, due to the arrival of CMEs of October 28.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 105, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 28 Oct 2013

Wolf number Catania	165
10cm solar flux	160
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	001
Estimated Ap	001
Estimated international sunspot number	102 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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