Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 October 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Oct 30 1300 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
30 Oct 2013	150	014
31 Oct 2013	148	026
01 Nov 2013	148	003

Bulletin

The strongest solar event of the past 24 hours was an X2.3 flare peaking around 21:54 UT on October 29. The X and 2 C flares originated from Catania sunspot 16 (NOAA active region 11875), which is currently rotating behind the west limb. The X flare was accompanied by a radio type II burst observed at Culgoora and a CME detected in LASCO/C2 at 22:12 which is mainly directed to the west and will probably not reach the Earth. In the next 48 hours, M flares are expected, with a chance for X flares. The strongest candidate region is Catania sunspot 16 (NOAA AR 11875), but also Catania sunspot regions 29 and 25 (resp NOAA ARs 11884 and 11886) could be sources of flaring activity. The proton flux measured by GOES is still enhanced, but below the event threshold. The warning condition for proton storms remains valid. Solar wind speed has increased to about 370 km/s as observed by ACE. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) currently has a stable magnitude near 10 nT, with a Bz component varying between -10 and +5 nT. Geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (local K at Dourbes and NOAA Kp between 0 and 3). Active to minor storm conditions (K= 4 to 5) are possible within the next 48 hours, due to the arrival of the CMEs of October 28.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 105, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 29 Oct 2013

Wolf number Catania	171
10cm solar flux	153
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	104 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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