Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 May 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 May 06 1212 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 May 2014	140	007
07 May 2014	139	010
08 May 2014	138	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been dominated by Catania group 36 (NOAA AR 2051) which is about to turn around the west limb and which produced an M1.8 flare peaking at 9:03 UT as well as a C7.1 flare peaking at 4:32 UT. A newly emerging region on the east limb (Catania group 43, NOAA AR 2056) produced a C8 flare peaking at 18:28 UT. Only a couple of further low level C flares were reported. Over the coming days flaring activity is expected to continue in the C level with also a possibility for M flares. There was a CME associated with the M1.8 flare but preliminary coronagraph data seem to indicate a rather restricted angular width which together with the source location leads to expect it not to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed dropped to a low of around 340 km/s to increase to a maximum of around 420 km/s just before the sector boundary crossing around 22:00 UT after which speeds have been fluctuating in the 350 to 400 km/s range. The total magnetic field decreased and is now stable in the 4nT to 6nT range. Bz varied between -7nT and 5nT, and is, after the sector boundary crossing, fluctuating in the -2nT to 4nT range. There are yet no signs of the possible arrival of the May 3 CME, expected later today or early tomorrow. Geomagnetic activity has diminished from quiet to unsettled at the start of the reporting period to quiet at the end of the reporting period. Geomagnetic activity may increase to unsettled or possibly active if/when the May 3 CME arrives late May 6 or early May 7.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 101, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 05 May 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	139
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	100 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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