Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 May 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 May 07 1221 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
07 May 2014	138	003
08 May 2014	137	010
09 May 2014	137	011

Bulletin

Catania region 36 (NOAA AR 2051) as it turned around the west limb, kept determining solar activity for the past day. It produced another M1 flare peaking at 22:09 UT and some further C flares. A partial halo CME, with first appearance in LASCO C2 data at 17:36 UT, was associated with the C flare peaking at 17:35 UT. The bulk of the mass was expelled in western direction from the Sun Earth line, with a projected speed of around 390 km/s. It will therefore most likely not be geoeffective though some slight glancing blow effects around May 12 can not be fully excluded. With Catania region 36 (NOAA AR 2051) departing around the west limb the most dominant source of activity of the last days is disappearing. C-flaring should be expected from regions 42 and 43 (NOAA AR 2055 and 2056) which have been active before rotating onto the visible disc, though they have been mostly quiet recently. An isolated M flare is still possible. Solar wind is back at normal conditions with wind speed dropping steadily over the last day from around 380 km/s to about 340 km/s. Total magnetic field also dropped from around 5nT at the beginning of the reporting period to just above 2nT currently. Bz was predominantly positive initially but is now variable within the -3.5nT to 2nT range. No signatures of the May 3 CME have been registered. Solar wind conditions are first expected to remain as they are over the next day but speeds are later expected to increase due to influence of a recurrent coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity has been quiet throughout the reporting period and is again expected to remain so over the next day. Afterwards, increase to unsettled conditions is expected to accompany the coronal hole high speed stream.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 082, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 06 May 2014

Wolf number Catania	173
10cm solar flux	139
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	102 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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