Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 May 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 May 13 1311 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
13 May 2014	163	006
14 May 2014	162	010
15 May 2014	161	009

Bulletin

There are currently nine numbered sunspot groups on the solar disc. The solar activity remains low with only few C-class flares reported during last 24 hours. Weak, long duration flare (not reported) which peaked at about 11:05 UT on May 12, originated from the Catania sunspot group 47 (NOAA AR 2060). The flare was associated with coronal dimming, an EIT wave and CME. The CME had angular width of 130 degrees and projected speed of about 600 km/s. The bulk of the CME mass was oriented southward of the Sun- Earth line, and this CME will not arrive at the Earth. We expect C-class flares and possibly also an isolated M-class flare. Catania sunspot groups 42 and 43 (NOAA ARs 2055 and 2056, respectively) are currently situated in the western solar hemisphere, a major eruption in one of them may lead to a proton event, so we issue warning condition for a proton event. The solar wind speed is about 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field is stable with the magnitude between 1 and 2 nT. The fast flow associated with the small equatorial corona hole which reached the central meridian yesterday might arrive at the Earth on May 15, producing at most unsettled geomagnetic conditions. The fast flow from the small and narrow equatorial coronal hole which reached the central meridian on May 11 might arrive in the morning of May 14. The geomagnetic conditions are at the moment quiet and expected to remain so in the following hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 094, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 12 May 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	106 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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