Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 May 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 May 14 1203 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 May 2014	159	007
15 May 2014	158	010
16 May 2014	159	008

Bulletin

The solar activity is low and the strongest flare observed during last 24 hours was long duration C6.8 flare peaking at 22:24 UT on May 13. The flare originated from the Catania sunspot group 43 (NOAA AR 2056). No clear signatures of CME possibly associated with this flare were observed in the coronagraph data. We expect C-class flares, in particular from the newly and fast emerging active region currently situated close to the east solar limb. An isolated M-class flare is possible but not very probable. Earth is currently inside of a slow solar wind with a speed of 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 6 nT. The fast flow associated with the small equatorial corona hole which reached the central meridian on May 12 might arrive at the Earth on May 15, producing at most unsettled geomagnetic conditions. We expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions in the following 48 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 116, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 13 May 2014

Wolf number Catania	171
10cm solar flux	159
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	091 - Based on 31 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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