Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 June 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Jun 10 1248 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Jun 2014	166	007
11 Jun 2014	170	005
12 Jun 2014	178	006

Bulletin

The strongest flare in the past 24 hours was an impulsive X2.2 flare peaking at about 11:42 UT on June 10. The flare originated from the active region which just rotated from the behind of the east solar limb. The SDO/AIA data indicate that the flare was possibly associated with the CME. The active region at the east solar limb which produced the X-class flare today is very likely to be the source of more strong flares. We therefore expect C-class, M-class and also possibly X-class flares. The Catania sunspot groups 69 and 76 (NOAA AR 2080 and 2085, respectively) which currently have beta-gamma-delta configuration of the photospheric magnetic field are also very probable source of flaring activity. The Catania sunspot groups 69 and 76 (NOAA AR 2080 and 2085, respectively) are currently situated in the western solar hemisphere. The major eruption from one of these sunspot groups may lead to a proton event, so we issue warning condition for a proton event. The solar wind speed is about 430 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is currently 7 nT. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 115, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Jun 2014

Wolf number Catania	219
10cm solar flux	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	112 - Based on 33 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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