Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 June 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jun 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 10/1142Z from Region 2087 (S18E71). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun, 13 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 477 km/s at 10/1947Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/1144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/1203Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Jun, 12 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Jun). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun, 13 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jun to 13 Jun
Class M60%60%60%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton30%30%30%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Jun 166
  Predicted   11 Jun-13 Jun 165/160/160
  90 Day Mean        10 Jun 138

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Jun  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun  006/005-006/005-012/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun to 13 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%35%
Minor storm01%01%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm15%15%30%
Major-severe storm05%05%50%

All times in UTC

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