Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 June 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jun 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
11/0906Z from Region 2087 (S18E56). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13
Jun, 14 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
643 km/s at 11/1108Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/2157Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/0050Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13
Jun, 14 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jun 168 Predicted 12 Jun-14 Jun 175/170/165 90 Day Mean 11 Jun 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 007/008-012/018-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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