Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 May 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 May 15 1251 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
15 May 2014	163	009
16 May 2014	160	009
17 May 2014	158	006

Bulletin

The strongest flare in the past 24 hours was C8.3 flare peaking at 15:04 UT on May 14.The flare originated from the Catania sunspot group 43 (NOAA AR 2056) which currently has beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. No clear signatures of CME possibly associated with this flare were observed in the coronagraph data. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during last 24 hours. We expect C-class flares and possibly also an isolated M-class flares. The flaring activity is expected, in particular, from the Catania sunspot groups 43, 46, 47 (NOAA ARs 2056, 2058 and 2060, respectively) and newly emerged NOAA AR 2063. All these active regions (with an exception of NOAA AR 2063) are currently situated in the western solar hemisphere, a major eruption in one of them may lead to a proton event, so we issue warning condition for a proton event. The solar wind speed is low (about 350 km/s), and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is stable having value of about 6 nT. The fast flow associated with the small equatorial corona hole which reached the central meridian on May 12 is expected to arrive at the Earth today, although its arrival is not very probable. We expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 105, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 14 May 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	114 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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