Viewing archive of Friday, 16 May 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 May 16 1310 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
16 May 2014	152	007
17 May 2014	148	008
18 May 2014	146	008

Bulletin

The solar activity is very low. The strongest flare observed in last 24 hours was a C5.7 flare peaking at 07:04 UT this morning. The flare originated from the Catania sunspot group 43 (NOAA AR 2056) which still has beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Currently available data show no clear signatures of CME possibly associated with this flare. The partial halo CME, first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 20:48 UT on May 15, had angular width of about 180 degrees and projected plane of the sky speed of about 600 km/s. The radio signature of the shock wave, i.e., type II radio burst was observed, associated with this CME. The radio bursts drift rate gives indication of the shock wave speed of about 900 km/s. From the currently available data it seems that the source region of this CME was just behind the east solar limb and the CME will therefore not arrive at the Earth. The Catania sunspot groups 43 and 47 (NOAA ARs 2056 and 2060, respectively) still have beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field and they are situated in the western solar hemisphere. Therefore, we keep the warning conditions for a proton event. Earth is currently inside of a slow solar wind with a speed of about 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is at the moment 6 nT. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and expected to remain so in the following hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 094, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 15 May 2014

Wolf number Catania	167
10cm solar flux	152
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	107 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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