Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 June 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Jun 12 1316 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Jun 2014	171	006
13 Jun 2014	168	014
14 Jun 2014	168	006

Bulletin

During last 24 hours four M-class flares were reported, and the strongest one was a M2.7 flare which originated from the Catania sunspot group 81 (NOAA AR 2087). The flare peaked at 10:21 UT on June 12 and was possibly associated with the CME (based on SDO/AIA data). More will be reported as soon as coronagraph data become available. The X1.0 flare (peaking at 09:06 UT) on June 11, M3.9 flare (peaking at 21:03 UT) on June 11 and the M2.0 flare (peaking at 04:21 UT) on June 12 were associated with narrow CMEs which will therefore not arrive at the Earth. The faint halo CME first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 14:36 UT, on June 10 had angular width of about 270 degrees. The bulk of the CME mass was directed northward from the Sun-Earth line. Currently available data give no indications about possible on disc signatures of the CME. We do not expect this CME to arrive at the Earth. The faint partial halo CME first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 18:00 UT, on June 10 had angular width of about 180 degrees and the bulk of the CME mass directed north- east from the Sun-Earth line. From the currently available data it seems that the CME was associated with the flare at E170 as seen from the Earth, and will therefore not arrive at the Earth. We expect C-class, M-class and X-class flares in the coming hours, in particular from the Catania sunspot groups 81, 69 and 76 (NOAA AR 2087, 2080 and 2085, respectively). Due to the position of the Catania sunspot groups 69 and 76 (NOAA AR 2080 and 2085, respectively) on the western solar hemisphere, we maintain the warning condition for a proton event. The Earth is still inside the fast solar wind (speed of about 500 km/s). The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 4 nT. The geomagnetic conditions are at the moment quiet and expected to remain so in the following hours. The glancing blow associated with the halo CME from June 10 is expected to arrive at the Earth in the morning of June 13, and it might result in active geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 136, based on 25 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Jun 2014

Wolf number Catania	217
10cm solar flux	168
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	124 - Based on 33 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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