Viewing archive of Saturday, 31 May 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jun 01 0320 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2014 ********** CORRECTION **********IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
31/1556Z from Region 2076 (S20W59). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jun,
02 Jun, 03 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 373 km/s at
30/2359Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 30/2125Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 31/0754Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Jun), quiet levels on
day two (02 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jun to 02 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 May 104 Predicted 01Jun-03 Jun 105/110/110 90 Day Mean 30 May 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 May 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 008/008-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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