Viewing archive of Friday, 27 June 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jun 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 27/0114Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (28 Jun) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (29 Jun, 30 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 379 km/s at 27/2034Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (29 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (30 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
Class M05%10%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Jun 104
  Predicted   28 Jun-30 Jun 110/120/130
  90 Day Mean        27 Jun 133

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun  007/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Jun  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun  012/012-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm20%20%05%

All times in UTC

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