Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 June 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jun 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/1119Z from Region 2093 (S09W06). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun,
24 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
502 km/s at 21/2038. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/2145Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/2104Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 198 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (22 Jun, 23
Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Jun) with a chance for
minor storms in response the the passage of transient features.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 101 Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 21 Jun 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 013/018-018/018-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 25% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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