Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 June 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Jun 21 1421 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
21 Jun 2014	102	009
22 Jun 2014	104	009
23 Jun 2014	106	007

Bulletin

The strongest of the three C-class flares of the past 24 hours was the C2.1 flare peaking at 11:19 UT today in the Catania sunspot group 89 (that, together with the Catania sunspot group 90, constitutes the NOAA AR 2093). We expect flaring activity on the C-level, mainly from Catania sunspot groups 81 (NOAA AR 2087) and 89. Two halo CMEs were detected by SOHO/LASCO. A very weak partial halo CME (angular width around 270 degrees, projected plane-of-the-sky speed around 350 km/s) first appeared in the LASCO C2 field of view at 12:24 UT on June 20. It was associated with the C5.0 flare peaking at 11:20 UT in the Catania sunspot group 89. Another partial halo CME (angular width around 160 degrees, projected plane-of-the- sky speed around 300 km/s) was first seen in the LASCO C2 field of view at 05:24 UT on June 21. It was associated with a filament eruption at the central meridian in the northern hemisphere. The first halo CME was more symmetric with respect to the coronagraph occulter, so we expect the arrival of the corresponding ICME on June 24, possibly resulting in a minor geomagnetic storm (K = 5). The second halo CME was mostly directed to the north of the ecliptic plane, so we expect at most a glancing blow of a corresponding ICME on June 25 without significant geomagnetic disturbances. Isolated intervals of active (K = 4) geomagnetic conditions were reported by Dourbes and IZMIRAN during the past 24 hours due to a very inhomogeneous distribution of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude in the current solar wind flow. Now the Earth is inside a slow (around 450 km/s) solar wind flow with weak (around 3 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so, with active geomagnetic conditions possible but not very likely.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 062, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Jun 2014

Wolf number Catania	088
10cm solar flux	102
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	055 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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